Reality Check
The scoreboard is sats
Friday close 16 Oct 26. What borrowed bitcoin deployed into treasury companies would be worth in bitcoin, against simply holding. The liability is still measured in BTC.
Edition · Methodology v1
Week ending 16 Oct 26
Bitcoin barely moved this week. Strategy and Strive both fell hard in sats; Metaplanet was the only green one-week row, and only just. Over twelve months the three split: on these sourced prices, deploying borrowed BTC into Strive a year ago would have beaten holding, while Strategy and Metaplanet would have left a smaller stack than holding. The liability is still measured in BTC.
Hypothetical holding period, not a contract maturity.
Strategy · MSTR
Nasdaq
12 months financed deployment vs holding 1 BTC
-0.4142 BTC
0.95 BTC deployed here would be worth 0.5858 BTC now. Break-even against holding needs 1 BTC.
- Equity vs Bitcoin (unlevered)
- -38.34%
- Repurchase coverage
- Short 0.3642 BTC
Strive · ASST
Nasdaq
12 months financed deployment vs holding 1 BTC
+0.7923 BTC
0.95 BTC deployed here would be worth 1.7923 BTC now. Break-even against holding needs 1 BTC.
- Equity vs Bitcoin (unlevered)
- +88.67%
- Repurchase coverage
- Covers, +0.8423 BTC over
3350
Tokyo Stock Exchange
12 months financed deployment vs holding 1 BTC
-0.1882 BTC
0.95 BTC deployed here would be worth 0.8118 BTC now. Break-even against holding needs 1 BTC.
- Equity vs Bitcoin (unlevered)
- -14.55%
- Repurchase coverage
- Short 0.1382 BTC
| Company | Window | Equity vs BTC | Deployed value | Net vs HODL | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy · MSTR | 1 week | -10.21% | 0.853 BTC | -0.147 BTC | Short 0.097 BTC |
| 1 month | -11.76% | 0.8383 BTC | -0.1617 BTC | Short 0.1117 BTC | |
| 3 months | +13.1% | 1.0745 BTC | +0.0745 BTC | Covers | |
| 6 months | -22.24% | 0.7387 BTC | -0.2613 BTC | Short 0.2113 BTC | |
| 12 months | -38.34% | 0.5858 BTC | -0.4142 BTC | Short 0.3642 BTC | |
| Strive · ASST | 1 week | -12.23% | 0.8338 BTC | -0.1662 BTC | Short 0.1162 BTC |
| 1 month | -20.53% | 0.755 BTC | -0.245 BTC | Short 0.195 BTC | |
| 3 months | +59.25% | 1.5129 BTC | +0.5129 BTC | Covers | |
| 6 months | +46.04% | 1.3874 BTC | +0.3874 BTC | Covers | |
| 12 months | +88.67% | 1.7923 BTC | +0.7923 BTC | Covers | |
| Metaplanet · 3350 | 1 week | +5.82% | 1.0052 BTC | +0.0052 BTC | Covers |
| 1 month | +11.72% | 1.0613 BTC | +0.0613 BTC | Covers | |
| 3 months | +0.91% | 0.9586 BTC | -0.0414 BTC | Covers | |
| 6 months | -23.51% | 0.7267 BTC | -0.2733 BTC | Short 0.2233 BTC | |
| 12 months | -14.55% | 0.8118 BTC | -0.1882 BTC | Short 0.1382 BTC |
Simplified hypothetical example per 1 BTC (1 transferred, 0.95 deployed, 0.95 owed), excluding trading costs, taxes and additional term charges. Not financial advice; past performance is not indicative of future results. Friday adjusted closes, Yahoo Finance. Published 20 Oct 26.