Reality Check
The scoreboard is sats
Friday close 16 Oct 26. What borrowed bitcoin deployed into treasury companies would be worth in bitcoin, against simply holding. The liability is still measured in BTC.
Edition · Methodology v2
Week ending 16 Oct 26
Over one week, Metaplanet outperformed bitcoin; Strategy and Strive underperformed bitcoin. Over twelve months, per 1 BTC deployed: Strive (+0.7934 BTC) finished ahead of holding 1 BTC; Strategy (-0.4138 BTC), Metaplanet (-0.1877 BTC) finished behind holding 1 BTC. The liability is still measured in BTC.
Hypothetical holding period, not a contract maturity.
Strategy · MSTR
Nasdaq
12 months financed deployment vs holding 1 BTC
-0.4138 BTC
0.95 BTC deployed here would be worth 0.5862 BTC now. Break-even against holding needs 1 BTC.
- Equity vs Bitcoin (unlevered)
- -38.3%
- Repurchase coverage
- Short 0.3638 BTC
Strive · ASST
Nasdaq
12 months financed deployment vs holding 1 BTC
+0.7934 BTC
0.95 BTC deployed here would be worth 1.7934 BTC now. Break-even against holding needs 1 BTC.
- Equity vs Bitcoin (unlevered)
- +88.78%
- Repurchase coverage
- Covers, +0.8434 BTC over
3350
Tokyo Stock Exchange
12 months financed deployment vs holding 1 BTC
-0.1877 BTC
0.95 BTC deployed here would be worth 0.8123 BTC now. Break-even against holding needs 1 BTC.
- Equity vs Bitcoin (unlevered)
- -14.5%
- Repurchase coverage
- Short 0.1377 BTC
| Company | Window | Equity vs BTC | Deployed value | Net vs HODL | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy · MSTR | 1 week | -10.51% | 0.8502 BTC | -0.1498 BTC | Short 0.0998 BTC |
| 1 month | -11.42% | 0.8415 BTC | -0.1585 BTC | Short 0.1085 BTC | |
| 3 months | +13.5% | 1.0783 BTC | +0.0783 BTC | Covers | |
| 6 months | -21.81% | 0.7428 BTC | -0.2572 BTC | Short 0.2072 BTC | |
| 12 months | -38.3% | 0.5862 BTC | -0.4138 BTC | Short 0.3638 BTC | |
| Strive · ASST | 1 week | -12.52% | 0.831 BTC | -0.169 BTC | Short 0.119 BTC |
| 1 month | -20.22% | 0.7579 BTC | -0.2421 BTC | Short 0.1921 BTC | |
| 3 months | +59.82% | 1.5183 BTC | +0.5183 BTC | Covers | |
| 6 months | +46.84% | 1.395 BTC | +0.395 BTC | Covers | |
| 12 months | +88.78% | 1.7934 BTC | +0.7934 BTC | Covers | |
| Metaplanet · 3350 | 1 week | +5.46% | 1.0019 BTC | +0.0019 BTC | Covers |
| 1 month | +12.14% | 1.0654 BTC | +0.0654 BTC | Covers | |
| 3 months | +1.26% | 0.9619 BTC | -0.0381 BTC | Covers | |
| 6 months | -23.09% | 0.7306 BTC | -0.2694 BTC | Short 0.2194 BTC | |
| 12 months | -14.5% | 0.8123 BTC | -0.1877 BTC | Short 0.1377 BTC |
Simplified hypothetical example per 1 BTC (1 transferred, 0.95 deployed, 0.95 owed), excluding trading costs, taxes and additional term charges. Not financial advice; past performance is not indicative of future results. Friday adjusted closes, Yahoo Finance. Published 21 Oct 26.